President Joe Biden’s controversial decision to allow Ukraine to fire Western-supplied, long-range missiles deep into Russian territory marks a watershed moment in the ongoing conflict. However, this move comes fraught with the potential for severe consequences, ranging from escalated Russian aggression to covert acts of sabotage targeting NATO members. The decision has sparked debate on whether Biden’s timing and strategy are sound or reckless.
Critics argue that empowering Ukraine with long-range missile capabilities risks drawing NATO further into the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched his unlawful invasion nearly 1,000 days ago, has frequently warned that such actions could be viewed as an act of war by NATO, potentially leading to catastrophic consequences. With Ukraine now holding these capabilities, Moscow’s response remains a looming uncertainty, and the West is bracing for potential reprisals.
Conservative Concerns Over Strategic Escalation
From a conservative viewpoint, Biden’s move appears shortsighted and dangerously escalatory. His administration’s delay in providing Ukraine with these critical munitions reflects what critics call a pattern of “strategic hesitance” that has plagued Western support for Kyiv. If Ukraine had been adequately armed earlier, perhaps it would not be fighting a war that has drained resources, weakened European resolve, and sown division among NATO allies.
- Risk of Russian Retaliation
Putin’s inner circle, including figures like former President Dmitry Medvedev, has not shied away from issuing dark warnings about the potential use of nuclear weapons or escalating the hybrid war against the West. While nuclear threats might be dismissed as rhetorical posturing, Russia’s history of sabotage and cyber warfare is well-documented. The GRU, Russia’s military intelligence arm, has already been linked to attacks across Europe, from the Salisbury poisonings in 2018 to more recent acts of arson and infrastructure sabotage. As Kaja Kallas, former Estonian Prime Minister, aptly stated, Russia is waging a “shadow war” on Europe, exploiting vulnerabilities to create maximum disruption (source: The Guardian).
Sabotage and Hybrid Warfare: Europe on High Alert
Biden’s authorization for Ukraine to strike military targets in Russia could spur a new wave of covert Russian operations aimed at weakening Western support. Analysts believe that direct, overt attacks on NATO territory remain unlikely, but the Kremlin is prepared to escalate its shadow war. Cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, and physical acts of sabotage could become the weapons of choice, aimed at sowing discord among NATO members and pressuring Western leaders into negotiation.
- European Weakness and Division
The conservative critique also points out the fractured state of European unity. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent phone call with Putin, in which he emphasized a desire for peace, appeared weak and undermined European solidarity. Such acts raise questions about Germany’s commitment to Ukraine, particularly as Scholz continues to withhold Taurus long-range missiles from Kyiv (source: Reuters). European disunity only emboldens Russia and exposes vulnerabilities that the Kremlin can exploit, whether through cyberattacks or other forms of asymmetric warfare.
The North Korean Factor and Strategic Missteps
Adding to the complexity is North Korea’s involvement. Reports indicate that Biden hopes missile strikes against Russian positions manned by North Korean troops will serve as a deterrent. Yet, given Kim Jong-un’s disregard for human life and his growing camaraderie with Putin, such a strategy seems naive at best. North Korea’s willingness to assist Russia in exchange for diplomatic and economic support suggests that this alliance will not easily be disrupted.
- Insufficient Coordination and Preparedness
Another conservative concern is the Biden administration’s lack of a coordinated, comprehensive strategy. While Europe faces an energy crisis and rising populism, Biden’s decisions often feel reactive rather than proactive. There are fears that without strong, consistent leadership, NATO will fail to present a united front, leaving Europe exposed to Russian aggression. The presence of Russian spy ships in critical waters, probing undersea infrastructure like pipelines and communication cables, is a reminder of the constant threat. Nordic investigations have found these vessels planning future sabotage operations, highlighting the need for coordinated Western defenses (source: BBC).
An Uncertain Path Forward
As Biden’s decision plays out, the stakes for Ukraine, NATO, and the West have never been higher. The conservative argument is clear: arming Ukraine now, with delays and divisions, is too little too late. The risks of retaliation and further destabilization remain real, and the West must prepare for a multifaceted response from Russia. Whether this escalatory step will tilt the scales of war or deepen Western vulnerability is a question that only time—and Putin’s next move—can answer.
